By Adrian Meredith
VICTORIA, Australia (TheSportsNEXT) October 6, 2012: Hosts Sri Lanka and West Indies are all set to fight for the ICC World Twenty20 2012 title tomorrow and it is pretty easy to get a preview here, by looking at the previous matches in the tournament that involved them.
Sri Lanka:
Beat Zimbabwe by 82 runs (4/182 to 100)
Lost to South Africa by 32 runs (5/46 to 4/78) - 7 over match
Beat New Zealand in Super Over (13 to 7)
Beat West Indies by 9 wickets/28 balls (1/130 to 5/129)
Beat England by 19 runs (6/169 to 9/150)
Beat Pakistan by 16 runs (4/139 to 7/123)
West Indies:
Lost to Australia by 17 runs D/L method (8/191 to 1/100 off 9.1)
No Result vs Ireland (Ireland scored 6/129 off 19)
Beat England by 15 runs (5/179 to 4/164)
Lost to Sri Lanka by 9 wickets/28 balls (5/129 to 1/130)
Beat New Zealand in Super Over (20 in 5 balls to 19)
Beat Australia by 74 runs (4/205 to 131)
The better team in the tournament is clearly Sri Lanka (5 wins, 1 loss), as compared to West Indies (3 wins, 2 losses, 1 no result). Both teams won a Super Over, both against New Zealand, while when they played each other Sri Lanka won easily.
Australia's main problem in that match was that they tried lots of spinners but none of them were real world class spinners, and Chris Gayle ripped them apart. Sri Lanka, in comparison, have some real world class spinners, with the likes of Ajantha Mendis, Rangana Herath and Jeevan Mendis. The problem is that even the best spinners are going to be decimated by Chris Gayle - it was the pacers that had Gayle in trouble - though they failed to take his wicket. Gayle simply hid from them, giving the strike to others until the spinners came on. But do Sri Lanka have enough quality pacers? They have Lasith Malinga, who is certainly good enough - but who do they have beyond that? Ordinarily, they wouldn't have much at all but in Sri Lankan conditions the likes of Kulasekera are doing well. Angelo Mathews could do well but so far he hasn't done so well. Thisara Perera has been good at times gone by, but not in this tournament.
So if West Indies play as well as they did against Australia, do Sri Lanka have any chance?
The best chance would seem to lay in Lasith Malinga getting Gayle out quickly. But if Gayle hides from the strike, like he did against Australia, then that may not be enough. West Indies had near perfect tactics against Australia. Sri Lanka will simply have to work out something better. The fact that West Indies hadn't shown that brilliance all tournament long makes it all the more difficult to combat as, other than the semi final, they have nothing to go on, and in the semi final all that they saw was a team that had been favourites for the whole tournament until that match be decimated.
West Indies have done reasonably well with their bowling but Sri Lanka won't find them quite as tough to face as Australia did. Sunil Narine may be a good spinner but Sri Lanka won't be quite as worried about him as Australia were - not that that was why they lost. Samuel Badree is still somewhat of a mystery, yet has an amazing domestic record, and he could be a problem too. But beyond those two West Indies don't have a lot of firepower in the bowling stakes and Sri Lanka would fancy their chances.
The other question, of course, is whether it was a one off. If their effort against Australia was a one off, and West Indies play like they did for the whole rest of the tournament besides that match, then Sri Lanka should win easily. And, perhaps, with Shane Watson failing, Australia were easy beats. Perhaps it wasn't so much that West Indies did well but that Australia did badly.
The thing is that, ultimately, it does get that simple. If West Indies get 205 against Sri Lanka, keeping Gayle off strike and scoring 6s at will, then they will probably win. But if Sri Lanka can thwart it, or they otherwise fail to do that, then Sri Lanka should win. Simple as that.
Dilshan, Jayawardene and Sangakkara are still in form but now Jeevan Mendis, Angelo Mathews, Thisara Perera are all doing well with batting, while it isn't just Malinga that is bowling well - also Kulasekera is. And let's not forget that West Indies aren't known to have figured out Ajantha Mendis quite yet - and he could be a huge weapon. There is no guarantee that even Chris Gayle will know how to handle Ajantha Mendis.
Sri Lanka should win. But if lightning strikes twice, there is a chance that West Indies could. And because of that it is hard to know who is going to win. Will we get a repeat of the other night or will Sri Lanka win? And if we do get a repeat, will Sri Lanka have learned how to combat it?
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