By Adrian Meredith
VICTORIA, Australia (TheSportsNext) August 23, 2012: The group stages have been announced so now it is time to
play predictor, match by match and hence the whole tournament.
Group A: England, India, Afghanistan
Group B: Australia, West Indies, Ireland
Group C: Sri Lanka, South Africa, Zimbabwe
Group D: Pakistan, New Zealand, Bangladesh
1: Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe - I don't see Sri Lanka having any
trouble whatsoever with Zimbabwe at home.
2: Australia vs Ireland - While Australia will be nervous,
ultimately Ireland rely heavily on Australian-born players and that gives
Australia the edge - if their rankings themselves didn't give them an edge
already. A danger game but Australia should get over the line.
3: Afghanistan vs India - India won't have seen Afghanistan
before so this could be a danger but fairly close to home India should romp
this one in.
4: South Africa vs Zimbabwe - South Africa have lost to
Zimbabwe before but that was a very different Zimbabwe team and this match
should be a mismatch.
5: Bangladesh vs New Zealand - The crucial match to decide
Group D is the first match played! This will suit Bangladesh nicely, who should
get over the line here, though with New Zealand you never know.
6: Afghanistan vs England - Afghanistan will still be alive
here and an upset could be on the cards against a side that won't have seen
them before and may not respect them appropriately. It is also fairly close to
home for Afghanistan. England should win but this is one to keep an eye on.
7: Sri Lanka vs South Africa - Two of the favourites will be
facing off for who tops Group C here but at home Sri Lanka should win - but
South Africa might. A huge match.
8: Australia vs West Indies - This is a tough one with West
Indies having a lot more match winners but also a lot more fragile players and
it could go either way - and by a big margin either way. Will Chris Gayle get
150 off 100 balls? Or will Pollard get 80 off 40? Will Roach get 6 wickets in 2
overs? If none of those mercurial things happen, Australia should win, with the
likes of the Hussey brothers, Shane Watson and Cameron White able to get them
home, not to mention an array of big fast bowlers. If Australia had lost to
Ireland, this match will have extra excitement.
9: New Zealand vs Pakistan - You would think that Pakistan
would win this one easily but Pakistan are so unpredictable that they could
stuff this up - even if Bangladesh had managed to beat New Zealand. Whether
Pakistan wins and by what margin will say a lot about their chances in this
tournament.
10: England vs India - Provided that India have figured out
an answer to England's annoyance strategy, India should win this one easily
and, had Afghanistan managed to upset England, this could even knock them out.
But England are good at being extremely annoying so could cause an upset here.
11: Ireland vs West Indies - Ireland will think themselves a
chance here, just so long as West Indies don't do anything amazing. But West
Indies are fairly reliable in doing amazing things so should get this one.
Ireland may need this win to qualify though.
12: Bangladesh vs Pakistan - Bangladesh shouldn't have any
chance here and, oddly enough, Pakistan are less likely to stuff up against
Bangladesh than they are against New Zealand. This is mainly because Pakistan
don't know New Zealand as well. Just the same, Bangladesh may be an outside
chance.
By this stage, my prediction is that the following teams
finish in these positions:
A1: India A2: England, B1: Australia B2: West Indies, C1:
Sri Lanka C2: South Africa, D1: Pakistan D2: Bangladesh
13: C1 (Sri Lanka) vs D2 (Bangladesh) - Sri Lanka should be
too strong for Bangladesh here so should win this one easily.
14: A1 (India) vs B2 (West Indies) - Even amazing West
Indian performances will struggle against this power house Indian side. West
Indies are a chance but they will need to have more than one miracle
performance to get there.
15: D1 (Pakistan) vs C2 (South Africa) - A crucial match
that could go either way, I think that Pakistan may just get over the line
here, due to a bit of home ground (or close to it) advantage, but not by much.
16: B1 (Australia) vs A2 (England) - A tough match as
Australia suffered harshly against England's annoyance tactic but with super
captain George Bailey in chance surely Australia have cracked the annoyance
tactic code and can get over the line here. You never know though and they may
slip up.
17: A1 (India) vs D2 (Bangladesh) - I can't see Bangladesh
getting close here but you never know as they have beaten India before. If all
of their spinners fire and they bowl India out cheaply then they are a chance.
18: C1 (Sri Lanka) vs B2 (West Indies) - The clash of the
fragile teams will see which team is able to cover for their holes the best and
which team's mercurial stars get over this. West Indies may just win this one.
19: B1 (Australia) vs C2 (South Africa) - I can't see
Australia getting close to beating South Africa. Not even close.
20: D1 (Pakistan) vs A2 (England) - No matter what tactics England
use, I can't see them getting close to winning this one.
21: B2 (West Indies) vs D2 (Bangladesh) - Bangladesh will
want revenge for the last World Cup and could win this one. Indeed, I will say
that they will win this one. If they don't, they will be devastated.
22: A1 (India) vs C1 (Sri Lanka) - This is a tough one to
predict as these two teams play each other constantly all of the time but the
fact that it is in Sri Lanka may just get them over the line here.
23: B1 (Australia) vs D1 (Pakistan) - This one could go
either way and Australia have a very good record against Pakistan. I think that
Australia could well win this one.
24: A2 (England) vs C2 (South Africa) - There is no way that
England should go close to winning.
Thus the super 8 table should read:
A1 (India) - 2+2 = 4 wins, A2 (England) - 1+0 = 1 win, B1
(Australia) = 2+2 = 4 wins, B2 (West Indies) - 1+2 = 3 wins, C1 (Sri Lanka) -
2+2 = 4 wins, C2 (South Africa) - 1+2 = 3 wins, D1 (Pakistan) = 2+2 = 4 wins,
D2 (Bangladesh) - 1+1 = 2 wins. This means it is India, Australia, Sri Lanka
and Pakistan all equal on 4 wins. It will then go down to net run rate. I think
that India and Pakistan will probably have the best net run rates, with
Australia then Sri Lanka with the worst.
Thus semi finals:
1 (India) vs 4 (Sri Lanka) - This is in Sri Lanka, which
gives Sri Lanka an advantage, not to mention that they won their previous match
(per my prediction). It will be a hugely fought match but in the end I think
that Sri Lanka may just edge home. Just.
2 (Pakistan) vs 3 (Australia) - Again, these two teams would
have already played with, per my prediction, Australia winning. But Pakistan
are at home and can fight back from that to get home, and I think that Pakistan
would win.
Final: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan - A tough match, but on a big
stage I think that Sri Lanka's fragile team will beat Pakistan's unpredictable
team, at home.
There are, of course, a few crucial matches there. South
Africa could make the finals instead of Pakistan if they win their match up.
There are many permutations.
It looks like a good contest either way. I think that, this
time, the right minnows were chosen, with Ireland and Afghanistan bound to
shake it up a bit. Good groups too.
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