By Adrian Meredith
MELBOURNE, Australia
(TheSportsNEXT) November 14, 2012: There is the old adage "don't
change a winning team", which is akin to another old saying, "If it
ain't broke, don't fix it".
The problem is that the team that was on display in the 1st
test in Brisbane was far from ideal.
Sure, Australia ended up with a lead - with only 5 wickets
down - and were in a position towards the end that they could have won the
match. But that was against 10 men, it should be noted, not just for a few
hours, or even for a day, but for the entire match. South Africa not only lost
one of their bowling options - meaning that their bowlers got tired and when
others were having bad days it was tougher to cover for them - but it also
meant that they missed one of their main batsmen too. When you lose an
all-rounder - even if it is only your 2nd best (after Kallis) - it hurts a lot
more than just losing a batsman or a bowler. It affects the whole balance of
the team.
And the reality is that, had J P Duminy not been injured,
South Africa probably would have won.
Not to mention that rain robbed South Africa of any real
chance of victory, and turned the tide towards Australia.
There are some players from Australia who performed
incredibly well:
James Pattinson
once again did fantastically well against a very good batting side, to be the
best bowler in both innings.
Ed Cowan should
have been out for 46, but for a no ball that at the time wasn't called - but he
went on to get a match saving 136.
Michael Clarke
was out twice off no balls, was also dropped once and was generally leading a
charmed life but he still top scored with an unbeaten 259 that gave Australia a
chance of victory.
Michael Hussey
scored a quick fire 100 that probably would have been much more if not for him
trying for quick runs that highlighted just how good his form is.
Matthew Wade had
an all-round fantastic fielding performance, that ultimately lifted the team
considerably in the field, highlighted by some classic catches.
That is 5 players out of 11 who did so well that they can't
be dropped.
On top of that, the following other players are probably
fairly safe in spite of poor returns:
Ricky Ponting may
have been out for a duck but he is still top scorer in the domestic season this
year, is in incredible form and there is nobody to replace him.
David Warner may
have been out cheaply but he is in pretty good form and it'd be very risky to
drop him.
While they could drop Ponting and Warner, it'd be very risky
to do it right now, and dropping players after one bad test is very unlike
Australian selectors.
That leaves four players who are not safe who performed
really badly and should be dropped:
Rob Quiney looked
positive in his 9, but the fact that he scored only 9 out of a high scoring
affair, and the way that he got out - going for a 6 when the score was 1/30
chasing 450 - will not impress selectors. He has a poor FC record, is in poor
form and was a ridiculous choice to start with - there is no way to justify his
place now. Australia missed the 5th bowling option that Watson usually provides
and Quiney's bowling was so horrible that it is clear that someone who can bowl
must take his place.
Nathan Lyon is in
terrible form this season, averaging over 50, and he looked appalling in the
test, going at a very high economy rate and the only wickets he got were when
batsmen failed to take him seriously. He was a burden to the side. The only
possible reason to consider him for Adelaide is that it is his home ground, and
it is a pitch that tends to be good for spinners - but he was so horrible that
even that doesn't seem like enough of a reason.
Ben Hilfenhaus
was economical but most of the time he was pretty horrible, in terms of trying
to take wickets. In ODIs and T20s good economy rates are useful, and he might
have been useful had there been 3 quality bowlers at the other end, instead of
just Pattinson. As it was, he was quite useless and, given how many other good
bowlers are knocking on the door, it is hard to justify his inclusion.
Peter Siddle
isn't really in the best of form and, for most of the test, he looked horrible
when bowling, only barely better than Lyon, and probably worse than Hilfenhaus
- except that he was able to produce the occasional, unexpected wicket-taking
ball. The main reason to include him for Adelaide would be if they want his
"experience" - though in reality he is pretty inexperienced himself.
He may just hold on to his place but in reality he probably should be dropped
too - just that the selectors might not.
So who are the
replacements?
Rob Quiney's spot:
It was clear in Brisbane that Australia missed having the
5th bowling option. In Adelaide, where it is easy to bat, they will be tempted
to go with 5 frontline bowlers; but that itself has some risk associated. If
Shane Watson is fit, then there is no doubt that he will play - but the
selectors have said that Watson won't make the side unless he can bowl as well.
So who to consider?
For me, Glenn Maxwell is a good option, because he is in
pretty good FC batting form; but also can bowl spin. While his spin bowling was
ripped apart in his ODI and T20 performances in the last few months,
nonetheless he could sneak one through in the test match. If he doesn't get a
wicket, he could at least hold up one end.
Another option could be Dan Christian, who continues to be
in good form with both bat and ball, and realistically should have been picked
for the Brisbane test ahead of Quiney. The problem is that he is worse in both
batting and bowling than Watson and Adelaide is unlikely to suit his style of
bowling - though Brisbane would have. He could still be considered, but it
might be a long shot.
Mitchell Marsh has been in fantastic form with both bat and
ball, and, if it wasn't for his indiscretions, he would be a very strong
option. But the problem is that the selectors would look bad if they picked him
- not to mention that his overall FC average is barely over 20. I think it is
unlikely that he will be considered but you never know.
There is also the possibility of James Faulkner though for
me his batting is far too weak to be considered as a top six batting option. He
may be considered if they want to go in with five out and out bowlers though.
Nathan Lyon's
spot - and also Ben Hilfenhaus and Peter Siddle:
There will be the temptation to go in with a spinner,
especially given it is in Adelaide, which is good for spinners - but the
problem is that Australia have no viable spinning options. Xavier Doherty, Jason
Krezja, Michael Beer and really all other spin bowling options are just not up
to test standard. Nathan Lyon is - but he is woefully out of form and would be
a huge risk. Nathan Hauritz seems to have disappeared so can't really be
considered either.
James Faulkner
for me looks like the favourite for this spot - though the selectors may
disagree. He is in very good bowling form and, especially if they play an
all-rounder in Quiney's spot, they will probably want to have another guy who
can bat to back him up. Two all-rounders may be a good option in Adelaide,
where it is easy to bat on, and where you need that extra bowling option.
Mitchell Starc
seems certain to play, it is just a question of which slot he takes. He is in
such fantastic form and was really missed in Brisbane - not the least for the
simple fact that he is a left armer - giving much needed variety.
Josh Hazlewood is
officially in the squad and probably will play, though he really shouldn't, as
he averages over 30 in FC cricket and isn't in particularly good form. If he
does play, it would be a hunch only - as he is clearly a worse bowler than
either Hilfenhaus or Siddle - and they should be moving forwards not backwards.
Mitchell Johnson
is another left armer who has an amazing record against South Africa, and can
also bat a bit, which could be very useful in Adelaide, especially if the
selectors go with 5 front line bowlers. He is in decent form, though nothing
amazing. But his being left armed will be very useful.
Doug Bollinger
won't be selected but I would like to consider him anyway. He is in great form,
is left armed, and has a proven quality record in all formats of the game - not
to mention he is experienced. In Adelaide, I'd prefer him to Johnson, though if
the selectors hate Bollinger then Johnson would be okay.
Alistair McDermott
is just 21 years old and already averages 20 in FC cricket - not to mention
that he is the son of the former bowling coach Craig McDermott - who himself
used to be a great test cricketer. McDermott looks ready and this could be a
good time to bring him in - he is a lot better than Hazlewood.
Clint McKay is
another option that should be considered - but won't be because the selectors
consider him an ODI/T20 only bowler. In spite of a fantastic FC record, and
producing very well at international level, he won't be considered because of
poor returns in one test.
So for me, this is the team that they SHOULD select:
David Warner
Ed Cowan
Ricky Ponting
Michael Clarke
Michael Hussey
Glenn Maxwell
Matthew Wade
James Faulkner
Mitchell Johnson
Mitchell Starc
James Pattinson
However, I don't think that they will. I think that Rob
Quiney will play again (big mistake) and that Peter Siddle will keep his spot
(smaller mistake). However, I think that Mitchell Starc will play and there is
a good chance that Mitchell Johnson will too. I think it may be out of Mitchell
Johnson vs Josh Hazlewood for the 4th and final bowling spot - though Nathan
Lyon will be in the 13 man squad too, in case they want to keep spin. Luckily
for Johnson, Hazlewood is a pretty terrible bowler and comparing the two it is
easily going to be Johnson. I don't think that they will risk Lyon again.
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