By Adrian Meredith
VICTORIA, Australia (TheSportsNEXT) October 4, 2012: In case you weren't aware, Indian cricket, from the players, administrators, sports journalists and fans, are all convinced that other teams conspired to get them knocked out of the ICC World T20 semi-final stage.
Their evidence is that they were one of only four teams with four wins from five games - along with Sri Lanka, Australia and Pakistan - and therefore should have been the 4th team to qualify - ahead of West Indies who only managed two wins and a no result. They argue that the other three teams in their group - Australia, Pakistan and South Africa - all conspired, along with the people who made the rules on how the Super Eights groups were divided - to make sure that India wouldn't qualify. They paid particular attention to Australia, claiming that Australia didn't want to face them in the semi-finals.
Except that Australia wouldn't have had to face them.
Had India qualified - by virtue of Australia beating Pakistan - India would have had to play Sri Lanka in the semi-finals, not Australia. Australia would still be facing West Indies. It would then have been a question of whether Australia and India won their respective semi-final matches. If they had, then they would have faced off.
But why would Australia be worried? After all, they had already played against each other in this World T20, in the first Super Eights match, which Australia won quite convincingly. Why would Australia be worried about a team that they beat easily less than a week ago? I would think that Australia would be more nervous about facing Sri Lanka, who are at home and in great form.
The reality is that there was no fix.
Australia knew that to guarantee that they qualified they could either beat Pakistan or lose narrowly. If they batted first, then a narrow loss could be losing with five overs to spare; but the exact amount of overs wouldn't be known until their innings was over. As such, to make it simpler, and to put it all in their own hands, they batted second, to chase. They knew that they could afford to lose by anything up to 37 runs. In other words, however much Pakistan got, their first target would be to get 37 runs less than that. Do that, and no matter how much India beat South Africa by, they would still qualify.
Of course, Australia may still have qualified if they'd lost by 50 runs; but then they'd qualify in second spot and if India beat South Africa by enough India would qualify in their place. They didn't want to take that chance.
Australia's first aim was to qualify for the semi-finals. After Pakistan scored 149, their first aim was to get 112, 37 runs less than that.
The aim was to get that total around the 15th over, ideally, with 3 or 4 wickets down. They weren't going to go for the win until they got that target. If they got the 112 in the 20th over, that would be good enough too, but they didn't want to make it that tight.
Once Australia got past the target, their aim was to then go for it, knowing that the match no longer mattered for them, now hoping to stuff up their opponents, Pakistan, and to keep the winning momentum going by winning the match.
As it turned out, Australia lost early wickets. Sure, they could have taken huge risks to go for 10 or 12 runs per over, and sure they might have won the game. But if they tried to do that, they could have got all out for 70 or 80, and been knocked out of the entire competition.
Instead, as everyone saw, Australia paced themselves, preserving wickets then slowly lifting the run rate, aiming to get past the 112 run target by about the 17th over. But Pakistan bowled so well that even that didn't happen, and instead Australia only just got there in the 20th over! And with only three wickets in hand! It was tough going!
Pakistan, of course, were aiming for the win first, because a loss would make it hard for them to qualify, then to win by as much as possible, and a win by 37 runs was their target too. But Pakistan didn't care that much that Australia got past the 112 run target, just so long as it wasn't much beyond it.
As it turned out, both Pakistan and Australia had a target in mind that would mean that they both qualified. And, with both teams aiming for the same score, they did it.
Of course, that didn't knock India out. It only knocked South Africa out.
South Africa could have just given up and not bothered; but they had been stuffed over by other sides when they were in India's position, and they had a sense of revenge on their minds. South Africa's aim was purely to try to stop India from qualifying. Why? Because they could, and because it would feel like a victory! An actual victory would be their secondary aim.
India have nobody to blame but themselves though.Remember that India were huge favourites to win against Australia, and had they won that match, they wouldn't have been in this position.
India knew that, batting first, they had to win by 31 runs. They could only hope to defend 140; but preferably they'd want to be defending 160, and hence they would want a total of at least 170, but ideally 200+.
To do that, India would have to take risks. They'd have to go for all of their shots. They'd have to send their big hitters up the order. They'd have to risk getting out cheaply and losing the match badly. Basically what West Indies did in their game against New Zealand. That's what India should have done.
Instead, India played like they believed the conspiracy, believing that the world was against them. They didn't take overly big risks, just playing a moderate, average innings.
When they bowled, they were effectively defending a mere 121, and to defend that they would need to take huge risks. But again they refused.
India have nobody to blame but themselves.
If India were in the same position as South Africa, where their only aim would be to stuff up the other team, they'd try to do it too.
If India were in the same position as Australia, where they just had to lose narrowly, they'd do that too.
It had nothing to do with Australia not wanting to face India. It was wholly about trying to qualify for the semi finals.
If you saw the way that Michael Hussey punched his fists in the air when Australia passed the 112 mark, you'd know that Australia were aiming to qualify for the semi finals. If it was just to stuff India up, he'd have punched his fists after they lost the game narrowly.
Please, Indian conspiracy theorists, get over it.
While there is merit in questioning the idea of deciding on the Super Eights groups before the tournament has started (I agree that it was poor planning that we ended up with four undefeated teams in one group and four teams that had all lost in the other), suggesting it is a conspiracy against India is silly.
New Zealand, for their part, failed to qualify after two ties that they lost in the Super Over - if there was no Super Over, they might have qualified for the semi finals.
And Bangladesh can be pretty upset too that Brendon McCullum's only good innings all tournament was against them and without it they would have qualified.
Let alone South Africa, who were unbeaten at the group stage but didn't carry any points forward, in spite of easily beating Sri Lanka, who are now top of their Super Eights group.
India can be upset, but don't feel like the world is against you and only you. It is a competitive sport. The world is against everyone!
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