By Adrian Meredith
VICTORIA, Australia
(TheSportsNext) August 14, 2012: The 2012 ICC World Twenty20 is coming up in just a
month, starting on September 18th. So who will win? Let's look at some early
team profiles.
Sri Lanka:
As hosts they are obviously a huge chance and Sri Lanka are
ranked 3rd in T20s so should be able to capitalise. Lasith Malinga is one of
the best T20 bowlers going, with a low average, low economy and lots of tricky
yorkers. He will be ably supported by Tillekeratne Dilshan, Kumar Sangakkara
and Mahela Jayawardene. And that is pretty much it, superstar wise. As always,
Sri Lanka rely heavily on a few and carry the rest of the team. Angelo Matthews
is good on his day but isn't reliably good. They have an array of spinners who
can be deathly dangerous on their day, like Randiv, Herath and 2 different
bowlers called Mendis - with Ajantha the best bowler in the world except that
some of have figured him out (the bowling equivalent of Phillip Hughes
perhaps?) and Jeevan a decent prospect. Another youngster coming through is the
big hitting all rounder Perera who could be a handful. But the problem for Sri
Lanka, as it has always been, is what happens if the few that they rely on
fail? The team tends to fall apart then and, while it is possible that they
have enough succeed to get them over the line, consistency could be an issue
and they may fall short.
Pakistan:
Pakistan are only ranked 6th in T20s but they don't play at
home anymore and so won't suffer downwards like some other teams will, given
that this is away for all but Sri Lanka. Indeed, Sri Lanka is probably as close
as they are ever going to get to a home ground nowadays. They still have some
amazing bowlers with Umar Gul still the leading wicket taker in T20s, Saeed Ajmal
not far behind and Shahid Afridi right up there - and Afridi can bat a bit too
occasionally. Batting will be an issue but they do have a few who can smack the
ball to all corners and T20 seems to suit that kind of attitude very well.
Consistency will be an issue though as they will tend to be bowled out cheaply
occasionally. Not many teams are going to score too heavily against their
bowlers though and they should bowl out most teams so they are a real chance of
going all the way.
India:
As has always been the case, Pakistan have too many bowlers
and not enough batsmen, while India have the opposite problem. In the shorter
formats where they don't have to bowl teams out, India flourish and with the
IPL being the most popular T20 tournament in the world, India have become very
good at this format. They are only ranked 4th, in spite of winning a World T20;
but expect them to be huge here. Their bowling is improving too with Zaheer
Khan leading the way. So many batsmen, such huge scores, such huge scoring rates.
The only way to beat them is to bowl them out, and that is a very hard ask. Or
to take advantage of their bowling. They will be very tough to beat. If they
don't win, they will get very close. The big thing against India is that their
recent form has been a bit depressing, since winning the ODI World Cup and
getting the number 1 ranking in tests. They should be right up there but they
may beat themselves before their opponents do.
South Africa:
They are officially ranked number 1 in T20s now (did anyone
notice this?) and the absence of any World Cup, of either short form variety,
will be really hurting for them. They will want to get rid of the choking tag
desperately. The problem is that it exists for a reason. Through history,
players and teams with the choker tag stay chokers for a long time but when
they break the choking curse, oh boy do they ever break it. If South Africa do
win, they will win big and it will be the start of something massive. They have
so many amazing players that they could easily do it. They won't be getting out
cheaply too often, won't be losing to too many minnows and won't be losing by
big margins. To beat them a team will have to be a better team, play at their
best, and get lucky. But that just keeps on happening. Like India, they could
beat themselves but like India if they can avoid that they could go a long way.
England:
They are suddenly ranked 2 in T20s having been ranked number
1 since the T20 rankings first came out, and, with them holding top spot in
both ODIs and tests, they will want to win this to solidify that. Their rise
all started with their shock win in the last World T20, when they came in as
huge underdogs, played poorly early on but them came on with a huge streak.
That performance relied on them choking oppositions - they didn't try to bowl
them out, just to limit their scoring. They didn't try to bash the bowling
around either - just to preserve their wickets, hit lots of singles and then
later on bash it about. I termed it the most annoying team tactic ever invented
but it worked wonderfully. The problem is that they look set to be without
their best player Kevin Pietersen, and the whole controversy over him will hurt
the team as well. They have also been losing a bit lately and that will hurt
the team morale. Something tells me that 2 years later all of the teams will
have had enough of a chance to work out how to defeat the annoyance tactic,
which, ultimately, isn't the smartest tactic in the world and really shouldn't
work. I am sure that the captains and coaches and team managements will have
worked out counter tactics by now. Surely.
West Indies:
They have some of the best T20 players in the world, the
most valued in T20 tournaments the world over, with Chris Gayle, Keiron
Pollard, Dwayne Bravo, Andre Russell, Kemar Roach and now Sunil Narine. Darren
Sammy isn't too bad at T20s and Darren Bravo has his moments too. They have
fast bowlers with real pace, spinners with trickery and batsmen that can whack
the ball, combined with others who can stay there forever. Shivnarine
Chanderpaul is pretty darn good too. But, like Sri Lanka, they have holes and
players to cover. The big difference is that even West Indies' best players are
fragile and the whole team could flop all together, to be beaten by most anyone.
They could go all the way but at some point a minnow could beat them, or they
could all fail at once. Still a chance though.
Australia:
They have never been particularly good at T20s and are
currently ranked 9th but don't forget that last World T20 they made it all the
way to the final and indeed were unbeaten as at the final. Michael Hussey was
unbelievable in the semi final of that tournament while his brother David
Hussey is the leading domestic T20 run scorer - at a good rate too - and his
bowling can take some wickets in this format too. They also have Cameron White,
one of the biggest hitters and right up there in leading run scorers. Let's not
forget Shane Watson too. There are so many huge players. But there are holes.
They look set to play Glenn Maxwell, who has a poor domestic record and is
untried at international level, while Xavier Doherty isn't that great, and Brad
Hogg retired some 4 years ago but is now expected to be back for this
tournament. The captain George Bailey is inexperienced at international level
and isn't that great a player, being something of a professional captain. And
they aren't playing one of their best players in Mitchell Marsh, for
disciplinary reasons. They could win the whole thing. But there are too many
internal problems for them to be likely to stick together for long enough.
The above 7 teams (not 9, as suggested by George Bailey) are
a realistic chance to win the tournament. I put them in order of who I think
are most likely to win it, through to least likely.
As for the others, I don't think that they are a realistic
chance to win the whole thing but they could make it to the knockout stages and
from there who knows. In rough order:
Bangladesh:
They were briefly ranked as high as 4th on the T20 list after
beating Ireland 3 times in a row, only to slip down to 9th after losing to
Netherlands and Scotland - but back up to 8th after beating Netherlands. Ahem.
They are on a bit of a confidence high though, at least compared to 2 years
ago, and close to home will give themselves a big chance of going further than
they usually do. With their huge array of spinners they could bowl teams out
cheaply a lot. Tamim Iqbal and Shakib al Hasan are two of the better T20
batsmen going around and Shakib is possibly the best all rounder in the world
too. They could feasibly make the knockout stage. They only have to get ahead
of New Zealand to do that, and they beat New Zealand 4-0 at home recently.
Pakistan is in their group too, making this the unpredictable group.
New Zealand:
They just keep going downhill, further and further, and I
would actually consider it to be a minor upset for New Zealand to win a single
game, or to progress to the knockout stages. It isn't that they are the worst
team in the world so much that they are in a worse shape as a team than they
have been since probably the 1970s, when they were the worst team in the test
playing world. Luckily for New Zealand there are a few new teams in now so they
aren't quite the worst but they are close. But they still have that potential
to win the odd game here or there. They have no real world class players -
nobody who would make a top team as either a batsman or bowler - though Daniel
Vettori and Ross Taylor are at least good enough to get into an IPL team as a
foreign player. Others are good triers who on their day can be decent. They
could beat Bangladesh and really that will be the big game for them. Who knows,
they could beat Pakistan if Pakistan have an "off" day. The group
could finish 1-1 all and get down to run rate. New Zealand could top the group.
But on merit New Zealand should finish the tournament winless.
Ireland:
We are all excited about Ireland, who did so well in the ODI
World Cup, except for losing to Bangladesh, and we became aware that they have
won 2:1 or even 3:1 against fellow associates, and probably deserve to be given
test status. But they just lost to Bangladesh 3-0 and at least 1 of those
matches was humiliating. They are still a pretty decent side but they are
falling away a bit lately. They have West Indies and Australia in their group
and realistically it'd be a huge upset for them to win a game. Even if they
did, they won't make it through the knockout stages.
Afghanistan:
They really are going from strength to strength, rising in
rank higher than any other team and are actually a chance to be given test
status before Ireland is. This being in the subcontinent will help them too.
The problem for them is that their group includes India and England and they
will need to beat one of them to progress. Don't write them off though - they
are a chance - just not a very big one. If they win a single match, even if
they don't make it to the knockout stage, it'd be a huge upset and would make a
huge difference to their plight. They are certainly no chance of winning the
competition though.
Zimbabwe:
It was great to see Zimbabwe given test status again, and to
do so well against Bangladesh at home in their first series. But then they
showed that they really are below the other teams, with everyone else beating
them easily. Their group contains two powerhouse teams with Sri Lanka and South
Africa very unlikely to slip up against Zimbabwe and they are probably the
least likely team to win a single match. You never know though but it is very unlikely.
While they are better than they were when they were first banned from tests,
they are still nowhere near as good as they were at their peak. And even at
their peak they were no chance of winning a tournament as big as this.
So that's it. As a recap, in order:
Sri Lanka
Pakistan
India
South Africa
England
West Indies
Australia
Bangladesh
New Zealand
Ireland
Afghanistan
Zimbabwe
I don't consider any outside of the top 7 any chance to win
the entire tournament. Teams 8-12 are all a chance to make the knockout stages
though, in my opinion.
No comments:
Post a Comment