Who should replace Shane Watson and Ricky Ponting?

By Adrian Meredith

MELBOURNE, Australia (TheSportsNEXT) November 4, 2012: Ricky Ponting is a risk of missing the first Test against South Africa due to injury - enough of a worry that he came off early in the most recent Sheffield Shield game.

Shane Watson, in comparison, has complained of a slight niggle - and is now at a huge risk of missing the 1st test - or if he does play, it could be purely as a batsman.

Before going into who will replace them, let's look at some facts about each:

Ricky Ponting:

Averages 52 in test cricket, only behind Michael Hussey in the current Australian team.

Has scored more test runs than anyone else in Australian history, and is behind only Sachin Tendulkar, in the world.

Has done very poorly in tests in the past 5 years or so, other than a few big scores recently that just barely means he is in the squad.

Has been dropped from both ODIs and T20s - permanently.

Is in fantastic form domestically in the past year, including a match winning score of 160 not out - and is averaging 100 in the current season.

Shane Watson:

Is Australia's best ever all-rounder in test cricket, ahead of Richie Benaud, Allan Davidson and Keith Miller

Is ranked 2nd, only behind Jacques Kallis, as the best all-rounder in tests in the world.

Is comfortably the best all-rounder in the world in both ODIs and T20s.

Won 4 man of the match awards in a row to start the World T20.

Breaks down with injury regularly, especially when bowling, especially in tests.

As a batsman, still averages almost 40, which is still ahead of Ed Cowan, who replaced him as opener.

Given this, we have a few points that should be accepted as true:

·  There is nobody on the sidelines who is a better player in better form than either Ricky Ponting or Shane Watson.

·  If Ricky Ponting can bat at all, he should play.

·  If Shane Watson plays purely as a batsman, he is still a better option than Ed Cowan - and in that case probably Cowan should be dropped and we play an all-rounder.

Batsmen in contention to replace Ricky Ponting:

David Hussey is the obvious choice, averaging 54 in first class cricket. His form seemed to be poor but then he just scored an even 100 in an ODI game last week - off a mere 75 balls. His recent FC form is poor but his class is good. His bowling probably isn't test level but it is a different kind of bowling and could provide relief for the fast men.

George Bailey looked the man most likely, averages just over 40 in first class cricket and has been maturing in his role as T20 captain and now a regular in the ODI side, playing above himself.

Usman Khawaja is a bit of a long shot but, unlike the other 2, he has played test cricket. He averaged only 29 from his 6 tests - but that is still better than Ed Cowan! And his FC average is better, at 42. He is in some kind of form - though nothing too exciting. It would probably be seen as too big a risk and a bit too much of a bolt from the blue to be likely - but they were going to put Peter Forrest into the test side last year and very nearly did!

All-rounders in contention to replace Shane Watson (or to replace Ed Cowan if Watson plays purely as a batsman):

Dan Christian looks the man most likely, who has very nearly made his test debut about 10 times already in the past 2 years, and is still in fantastic form. He only averages 30 in FC cricket with the bat, and his bowling average is 34; but he is in really good form and has proved himself in both ODI and T20 level internationally. His bowling style is different and in the right conditions could be very hard to get away.

Mitchell Marsh only averages 21 with the bat in FC matches but averages 27 with the ball, and is a very tricky opponent. His bowling is significantly better than Christian's and he is borderline good enough for test level purely as a bowler; but he can bat in the top 6 and can be good. The problem is that his batting is a bit inconsistent and, with the recent headlines about his partying, he lacks discipline and probably isn't ready for test level yet. With the Australian selectors traditionally favouring discipline ahead of talent, it is unlikely that Mitch will get the nod. He is in form though.

Glenn Maxwell has come from out of nowhere to be in contention. He averages 45 with the bat and 38 with the ball in his 12 first class matches - the only one of the 3 who average better with the bat than the ball. He is also a spinner, unlike the other 2, meaning that they could then happily go in with all pace and have his spin as backup. Unfortunately, as proven in his ODI and T20 games, his bowling just isn't international quality, and his batting is somewhat erratic and inconsistent.

For me, I think that Ponting will ultimately play and that they will play Shane Watson purely as a batsman. They may drop Ed Cowan so that they can have an all-rounder, and if they do, I think that Dan Christian will play. But I think it would be a bit mean to do that and I can't see the selectors doing it.